Analyzing Union Berlin — the team keeping Bayern from the top
Urs Fischer’s side are unbeaten and on a roll in the Bundesliga, sitting pretty at the top.
Rafał Gikiewicz was the talk of the town in the Bundesliga last weekend — the Polish keeper made a string of brilliant saves to keep Bayern’s attack at bay for his team Augsburg to take all three points on the day thanks to a 1–0 win.
The high point of the match was when he reacted incredibly well to keep a header out from Manuel Neuer of all players on the pitch — Gikiewicz was unwilling to ease off. And his team was better off for it.
It wasn’t just Augsburg who had something to celebrate from that result, Gikiewicz’s former employers Union Berlin were also able to extend their lead at the top of the table, with two points separating them and Borussia Dortmund in second place. Julian Nagelsmann’s side are five points away from them in fifth place.
For a team that has been used to overperforming, this is not exactly unfamiliar territory for Union Berlin — but to be topping the Bundesliga is a whole different level of achievement. It is worth analysing therefore, what exactly they are doing right, to be where they are.
Goals aplenty in Berlin
As of the 21st of September, Union Berlin have the second most goals in the league overall, 14 in total. Leading the league for goals scored are the Nagelsmann’s Bayern with 18.
But what is in stark contrast between Bayern and Union is the way in which they have finished their chances.
The above graph shows that Union’s 14 non-penalty goals have come from a non-penalty xG of just 5.2. To put that into further context, the only side with a worse total are Augsburg with 4.8, according to numbers from Statsbomb via FBref.
Now what does this really mean for us in the grand scale of things? For one, it tells us that Union are wildly over-performing their early season underlying numbers and to expect them to sustain this over-performance over the course of a season is a stretch, to say the least.
The chances that Union have had so far have only been worth about five goals but a return of 14 goals from those chances tells us that Fischer’s men have hit a purple patch in terms of their finishing, which should regress sooner rather than later.
Now to dive even deeper into the numbers, it is also useful to look into their open-play chances (excluding penalties, corners etc.) and set-piece chances.
The numbers really speak for themselves, Union managed to score four goals from set-pieces when the quality of their chances was merely worth an xG of 0.88, equalling to almost a goal.
A quick look at Union’s shot map this season reveals all.
As evident, a lot of their goals have come from low-quality shots and only three have come from within six yards of goal, which have been headers. This is why finishing numbers so far look a bit silly good, they’ve been lucky enough to finish most chances they get.
Lots of goals from sub-optimal shooting is fueling their purple patch going into the international break. To put that into context, their npxG per shot (a proxy for average shot quality) is 0.06, the worst in the league.
To explain Union’s ridiculous finishing is to look at how they have been able to put away most of their chances and it is also worth noting that this is not a possession-heavy side, and a lot of their chances will come on the break. Which also means that they will not always have the opportunity to create high-quality chances and will more often than not need to be decisive when they are given the space to attack.
This kind of wild overperformance is definitely going to regress to the mean at some point. Last season they scored 45 goals in the league from a npxG of 46.9. In doing so, they almost did enough to qualify for the UEFA Champions League even, but Christopher Nkunku and RB Leipzig beat them to the fourth spot by one point.
Reaching the Europa League was another major milestone in the progress that Fischer and the club’s hierarchy have overseen in their time in the German top-flight.
From strength to strength
Since coming up to the Bundesliga in the 19/20 season, much has changed at the Alten Forsterei stadium.
Almost every summer transfer window has seen wholesale changes to the squad, but shrewd recruitment from Oliver Ruhnert, the sporting director has equipped the club with the tools to sustain their upward trajectory, so far at least.
This past summer, the club signed 10 players and let go of 13 including loan moves — a common theme of change is evident in the team, but Fischer’s tactical approach makes individual quality less important than the collective and that’s where the team’s strength is most discernible.
This is a quick recap of some big name exits from Union in the past two years —
- Max Kruse to Wolfsburg
- Taiwo Awoniyi to Nottingham Forest
- Marvin Friedrich to Gladbach
- Grischa Promel to Hoffenheim
- Robert Andrich to Leverkusen
The latter two of that list are becoming prominent names in the German midfield landscape whilst Kruse and Awoniyi’s chemistry and partnership was a feature of their 20/21 season, which ended with qualification for the Conference League on the final day of the season thanks to none other than Kruse.
Looking at how a team is trending on its xG created and conceded over a large sample can tell us a lot about the direction in which they are going, and for Union, it looks particularly positive in terms of their underlying chance creation trending upwards and concession trending downwards. A clear sign of a team getting better on all fronts.
American website FiveThirtyEight have a rating metric called the SPI rating (Soccer Power Index) which essentially is their best estimate of a team’s overall strength. And now if we look at Union’s SPI ratings over the course of their time in the Bundesliga, it is clear that they are improving bit by bit and making major strides in that process.
Their performance on the basis of SPI ratings further helps us contextualise their progress so far, there have been a few bumps along the way, but the improvement is there for all to see.
Let’s talk about Becker
Many felt during the summer that Awoniyi’s departure would leave a hole in attack extremely difficult to fill for Union. His partnership with Kruse first and then Sheraldo Becker later was crucial to Union’s successes on the domestic front.
They’ve bought Jordan Pefok from Young Boys in the Swiss Super League and so far, the move has been positive from a Union perspective — three goals and three assists in six matches in the league, you can’t really ask for more from your striker. But it is in fact his partner in attack, Becker, who has been the real standout so far this season.
In seven Bundesliga appearances, the Suriname international has scored six times and assisted a further three and in doing so, currently holds the status of top scorer in the league.
With the exits of big-name goal-scorers like Robert Lewandowski and Erling Haaland, the playing field has leveled up nicely and the top-scorer prize is there for the taking. But the underlying numbers from Becker’s goalscoring exploits so far this season suggest that it is unlikely that he will remain in contention for top-scorer.
According to data from Statsbomb via FBref, Becker’s six goals have come from a npxG of just 1.1. Which is to say that the quality of his chances so far has been worth just about a goal in total, but he’s exceeded that figure to a great degree.
To average chances worth just 0.19 npxG per90 and to deliver at the rate that Becker is doing, points to a striker whose confidence and momentum is fueling an incredible streak of finishes.
It is interesting to look at his shooting tendencies inside the box, which so far this season have been from wider angles. He has been able to score from chances which would ordinarily be difficult for most strikers to put away, but Becker is experiencing something of a Midas touch for Fischer’s side so far.
Putting his goals aside for a brief minute, Becker is central to Union’s attacking approach and making the most of the space left behind by their opposition during games.
The former Ajax youth product is hugely productive on the ball and has the ability to progress the ball further up the pitch with his carries. A hugely effective outlet for Union in possession, Becker has shown the ability to make the difference for Union during games.
Forwards in Urs Fischer’s system normally stay narrow and central out of possession and are not necessarily involved in much defensive work in their own half but remaining proactive in the opposition’s first phase of build-up is key.
Becker’s game has adjusted to the team’s needs over the past couple of seasons with the forwards he has partnered up with. Alongside Awoniyi, he was a devastating weapon in transition towards the opposition goal and not necessarily as involved in the act of scoring goals, but this season that has changed.
Becker has shown good movement and timing of runs to receive passes in behind defences to score, whilst also space available in the channels to assist his partner Pefok in the box, who has certainly benefitted from Becker’s purple patch in attack.
It is not an exaggeration to say that they are one of the most effective duos in the Bundesliga and not just because of their goals but more so because of their complementary profiles — Pefok is much more of a number 9 than Awoniyi was, and Becker is now more than a key cog in Union’s attack, now becoming the cog in Fischer’s system.
Okay that’s enough about the attack, you can’t just be top of the Bundesliga with a crazy good offense, so let’s take a quick look at Union’s defensive situation as well.
Living up to the tag of the Iron Ones
Union’s outstanding numbers in attack are definitely overshadowing what the team has been able to show at the back so far this season.
Fischer’s Union traditionally line up with a back five, where the centre backs’ primary responsibility is to protect their penalty area without the ball, but with the ball, the idea is to get it to the forward players as soon as possible and in doing so, pushing the opposition back by bypassing the midfield entirely.
Sitting top of the Bundesliga, Union have also conceded the fewest goals so far, just four in seven matches. To put those numbers into further context, let’s look at their ranks in terms of underlying defensive metrics —
2nd best for open play xG conceded (3.73)
3rd fewest shots conceded in the league (51)
*According to the Analyst
This is undoubtedly impressive from Union, especially considering that they’ve already played against RB Leipzig and Bayern in the league, two teams with far superior profiles and quality of players in attack.
Remember earlier where we discussed that Union’s average shot quality (npxG per shot) is actually the worst in the league? Well as it turns out, their opponents haven’t had much luck getting the ball into dangerous areas either.
Now naturally because Union spend a lot of time without the ball, opponents are going to have a significant volume of shots inside the box but so far, not too many have been of high quality.
Union have conceded shots of average quality 0.07 npxG per shot according to Statsbomb via FBref, which puts into context the struggles of their opponents to get past their stubborn mid-to-low block and find space in behind to get the ball into areas where they would get better chances from.
This rather helpful graphic from the Analyst tells us a lot about Union’s style in defending, which is to always ensure that they control the spaces in their own defensive third, without worrying too much about being proactive.
One goal conceded from open play is immense, even if it is just from seven matches.
They have had a great deal of success from this approach, and it looks unlikely that Fischer will stray from his principles and why should he? His team is sitting top of the Bundesliga, competing in the UEFA Europa League (albeit without a win so far) and to consider Union’s resources as a club, these are achievements far beyond their means.
A quick glance at the stylistic approach of Bundesliga sides once again helps us underline just how direct Union have been so far this season. I do expect them to improve and possibly become slightly more intricate as the season goes on but those core principles of attack in transition will still shine strongly through in the numbers.
How long will this amazing run continue?
It’s got to end at some point, right? History has told us that teams do regress to the mean sooner rather than later and Union will be no different — injuries, fatigue and other factors will catch up with them.
The month of October will prove to be a great test of this squad’s durability during a uniquely difficult footballing calendar and if they can still find themselves in the top four spots going into the World Cup, they might yet surprise us all.
Thanks for reading!
I hope you’ve enjoyed this little piece and that it has informed you a little about Union Berlin’s incredible season so far. A big thanks to Thanoshaan Thalayan, without whose help I would not be able to figure out some of the tricks behind creating the viz you’re seeing in the piece.
Thanks also to the excellent people at Understat, Football Reference and the Analyst for helping me always with my work.
Thanks again to Jason, without his worldfootballR package my data Viz work would be a lot more tiresome, highly recommend his work!
Thanks to the amazing authors of ggshakeR, Abishek Mishra, Harsh Krishna and Ryo Nakagwara for making such an awesome tool available to the community!
Also, a shout-out to the wonderful guys at the Athletic — Mark Carey, John Muller and Liam Tharme whose piece about Graham Potter’s Brighton served as an initial inspiration for the direction of this piece and the viz in it — https://theathletic.com/3573768/2022/09/08/graham-potter-chelsea-coach/
